Read this page on Ratepoolhttps://ratepool.com.au/home-loans/index/methodology |
Read this page on Ratepoolhttps://ratepool.com.au/home-loans/index/methodology |
Five indicators describe borrowing costs, market activity, household income, jobs and the future supply of homes. We combine them into a score from 0 to 100. It is a model of market conditions, not a survey of confidence or a measure of whether you can afford a home.
RBA average new owner-occupied principal-and-interest loan rate. Lower rates lift the score.
Three-month change in national dwelling prices, from BIS. Rising prices lift the score as a sign of market activity, even though they can make buying harder.
Annual change in real aggregate household disposable income, using ABS income and the household consumption deflator. Stronger growth lifts the score. This is quarterly and is not income per person.
Three-month average of the ABS seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. Lower unemployment lifts the score.
Three-month average of ABS seasonally adjusted dwelling approvals. More approvals lift the score. Approvals are plans, not completed homes.
Each component is scored against its lowest and highest values in a rolling 60-month window. For a historical reading, the window includes that month and up to 59 months before it. The latest reading uses the window ending in the latest month shared by the monthly inputs. Before June 2024, we use the shorter history available from July 2019 to each reading. We do not use later months to set those earlier benchmarks. The first month has no comparison range, so each component starts at 50; this is a starting convention, not evidence of balanced conditions. Lower rates and unemployment score higher. Scores are capped at 0 and 100; an unchanged component throughout the window scores 50. We multiply the five scores by their weights and add them together.
The weights are editorial choices, not statistically estimated probabilities. This version uses annual income growth and smooths unemployment and approvals over three months. The labels are descriptive bands: very weak below 20, weak from 20, mixed from 40, supportive from 60 and very supportive from 80.
A new month joins the benchmark as the oldest month leaves. If an old high or low drops out, the score can move even when the latest input stays the same. A warmer reading therefore does not always mean borrowing has become cheaper.
The five-year limit applies only to the benchmark. Original downloads, observations and revisions remain archived. Each published edition keeps its own score, inputs, benchmark and calculation version. Revised historical calculations are kept separately from previously published readings.
Each monthly edition will use a saved data snapshot and calculation version, reviewed before publication. Sources arrive on different dates, so the edition will state the period of each input. New data will not silently rewrite an earlier article or report. Corrections should be dated and explained.
Calculation version: ratepool-conditions-g-rolling60-v3. Edition: 2026-10-grolling60-v3.